cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/54371015
Analysts criticise a damaging precedent after Beijing made an accounting adjustment in an effort to avoid missing a UN commitment.
China has made an accounting adjustment to how it counts carbon emissions, making its climate change targets easier to meet.
The world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide was previously due to fall far short of the 2025 target it set for UN climate change negotiations.
However, a significant revision to how it measures emissions means China has now officially come close to meeting the goal.
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The shift also means Chinese leaders can claim to have met their international climate commitments for 2030 even if the country’s emissions rise. Previously they would have had to fall.
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The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Helsinki-based think tank, said the timing of the change was “obviously motivated” by the need to reduce the shortfall for the climate target for last year.
Lauri Myllyvirta, the centre’s lead analyst, estimated the accounting shift had erased about half of China’s growth in emissions between 2020 and last year. The reduction in emissions is big: 700 million to 730 million fewer tonnes of CO₂ a year, or about twice Britain’s annual emissions.
China is responsible for more than a third of the world’s carbon emissions because of its sheer size and reliance on polluting coal, so its decisions are crucial for determining future global warming. The country has positioned itself as a green leader, exporting wind and solar power components and electric cars to the world.
Most rich countries including the UK have committed themselves to absolute reductions in emissions as part of their international UN climate commitments.
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Chinese officials recently quietly announced changes to how they defined the carbon intensity metric.
Under the new accounting, China now includes CO₂ from industrial processes, such as cement and metals production. Crucially, it excludes the non-energy use of fossil fuels. This means that coal, oil and gas used as raw materials in the country’s growing chemical industry are no longer factored in.
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The result is much lower emissions. Official statistics previously suggested China’s emissions rose by 14 per cent between 2020 and last year. Under the revision, the growth appears to be only 7 per cent.
China would previously have missed its target of reducing carbon intensity by 18 per cent by last year, with only a 12.4 per cent reduction. The new accounting method allows the government to claim a 17.7 per cent reduction.
Myllyvirta said: “China’s decision sets this precedent where if your progress is lagging, you just come up with a way making the numbers look better. That’s a potentially very damaging precedent. To me that’s the most concerning part about it.”
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