Victory has always been on the table for Ukraine if they hadn’t been held back in using the weapons they were given. The US and EU were always too afraid of Putin escalating to a nuclear conflict. Most likely that fear is unfounded. Putin isn’t stupid, he would have let the EU have it’s pyrrhic victory. Cutting off their energy supply would have hurt the EU worse than losing the war hurt his pride. Leaving them with broken energy markets while he sat there with an oil supply would have let him entrench much deeper than he already is on the far right across both continents. He probably could have taken control of Ukraine’s rare earth supply through intermediary markets cheaper, and more completely, than the war has cost him already.
At this point though, the market has largely diversified itself away from Russia. Meaning the EU isn’t as worried about Ukraine blowing up the oil supply. At least until the problem in Iran came into play, almost as if coordinated.
Victory has always been on the table for Ukraine if they hadn’t been held back in using the weapons they were given.
But that’s my whole point. You imply that they shouldn’t have been held back, and I explain why the conditions were given. Whether or not that is good or not depends on the point of view. If you don’t want to be pulled into a war, you don’t give offensive weapons, if you don’t mind being pulled into a war, you do give offensive weapons. The plan could also have been to keep Ukraine in a stalemate so they can create their own industry. We don’t know that.
The only plan was to not interrupt the sale of Russian oil to the EU. Because despite repeated, and loud, warnings by everyone with a brain, the EU allowed themselves to become dependent on Russian oil. Meaning if they allowed Ukraine to actually crash the Russian economy 3 years ago, it would have caused serious hardship in the EU, and some strain on the US economy. Which would have been entirely workable, but politically toxic, and all the leaders involved were too weak to handle it.
India has an enormous energy demand and a lot of money. I’m sure a bunch of middle men are cleaning up, but I doubt anyone in Mumbai is enjoying a cheaper energy bill
Victory has always been on the table for Ukraine if they hadn’t been held back in using the weapons they were given. The US and EU were always too afraid of Putin escalating to a nuclear conflict. Most likely that fear is unfounded. Putin isn’t stupid, he would have let the EU have it’s pyrrhic victory. Cutting off their energy supply would have hurt the EU worse than losing the war hurt his pride. Leaving them with broken energy markets while he sat there with an oil supply would have let him entrench much deeper than he already is on the far right across both continents. He probably could have taken control of Ukraine’s rare earth supply through intermediary markets cheaper, and more completely, than the war has cost him already.
At this point though, the market has largely diversified itself away from Russia. Meaning the EU isn’t as worried about Ukraine blowing up the oil supply. At least until the problem in Iran came into play, almost as if coordinated.
But that’s my whole point. You imply that they shouldn’t have been held back, and I explain why the conditions were given. Whether or not that is good or not depends on the point of view. If you don’t want to be pulled into a war, you don’t give offensive weapons, if you don’t mind being pulled into a war, you do give offensive weapons. The plan could also have been to keep Ukraine in a stalemate so they can create their own industry. We don’t know that.
The only plan was to not interrupt the sale of Russian oil to the EU. Because despite repeated, and loud, warnings by everyone with a brain, the EU allowed themselves to become dependent on Russian oil. Meaning if they allowed Ukraine to actually crash the Russian economy 3 years ago, it would have caused serious hardship in the EU, and some strain on the US economy. Which would have been entirely workable, but politically toxic, and all the leaders involved were too weak to handle it.
Russia is doing plenty of business into India and China
True, but they’re not in the decision process for the EU supplying support to Ukraine.
iirc India has been really pressing the advantage though, Russias been getting shit prices for their oil.
Idk, this sounds like cope.
India has an enormous energy demand and a lot of money. I’m sure a bunch of middle men are cleaning up, but I doubt anyone in Mumbai is enjoying a cheaper energy bill