mkultrawide [any]

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Joined 4 years ago
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Cake day: August 2nd, 2022

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  • I don’t personally see many paths right now to bring this conflict to a more complete halt.

    The first is somehow managing to shut down the BTC pipeline. Israel isn’t substantially hurt by the blockade of Hormuz because the majority of their oil doesn’t transverse it. But Iran can’t attack Azerbaijan without stoking a more dangerous ground war with Azerbaijan and likely Turkey, and Turkey has yet to grapple with the contradiction of its “pan-Turkic” relationship with Azerbaijan against he fact that it’s supposed client state is actively fueling the war machine of a country that is now saying “Turkey is next”.

    The second is somehow getting South Africa to stop sending coal to Israel. For all of its work with the ICJ, South Africa remains one of the main suppliers of Israel’s most needed fuel source for electricity production: coal. If Israel starts having rolling blackouts in the middle of summer, or they have to decide between domestic fuel consumption or fuel for the war machine, I think the domestic situation gets increasingly untenable in a way that could force Israel to the table.

    The third, most powerful and also seemingly least likely, is China realizing that they are going to have to actively get involved and throw their economic weight around if a deal is to both get done any time soon and actually be enforced such that this war doesn’t immediately start up again. That likely involves a Chinese embargo of Israel or at least severe economic sanctions, plus making some tough threats and ultimatums to some of Israel’s regional and weaker global allies. Its been my opinion for a while that China could end this entire conflict in a few months by using their economic leverage, but it’s strategy the country seems to want to avoid at all costs to maintain their current foreign policy strategies.

    Maybe there is enough strain on the American capitalist class to force Trump’s hand, but I have trouble seeing it right now.