s0ykaf [he/him]

Maybe that’s part of the reason why Trump is escalating? Doubling down to try to save face?

i think he just doesn’t know what to do lol he’s already lost this and his burger brain can’t understand why or how, so he reverts to bombing until it somehow works out

Pre war flow rate was around 20 mb/d. Take a percentage (3.3 / 20 ) * 100% = 16.5 % of the original flow rate. Remember this is the generous scenario, there is still a daily 16.7 mb deficit.

don’t forget to account for demand destruction, economies can shift between energy sources, to an extent. this still increases prices (if they were using oil, it’s because it used to be the cheaper option), but it does hold the price of oil a little, specifically. this has been reducing oil demand by over 5 mb/d

china, as always, has been the largest party doing the shift. it always amazes me how dynamic their economy is

1/3 was definitely a 2 am overstatement on my part (that “like” is carrying a lot lol)

i agree on the oil futures thing, but spot oil is also much lower than before. that said, it’s probably more related to demand destruction (china alone is importing over 3 million fewer barrels a day) and to the iea releasing tons of oil, both of which are obviously temporary cushions

not that i want war, peace would be fine too, but these random skirmishes and constant threats without meaningful action are the worst alternative. every time it’s such a fuss, so many serious threats being thrown around. we gonna bomb this, we gonna bomb that, we gonna exterminate these, we gonna end those. no you won’t, shut the fuck up. no escalation and no resolution from either party, just a standoff that only makes sense for those involved and aware of all the little things we don’t know. even the strait is like 1/3 open already

over the lithium deal too?? could they make the set up any more obvious than that lmao

actual consumption has dropped much faster than anticipated, capping the potential upside for global oil prices

i do believe that tbh. oil futures are prone to ideological crap, but spot prices have been dropping a lot too afaik, and that one leaves no room for propaganda bullshit