thethirdgracchi [he/him, they/them]

I think they’re gonna frame “the region” as the Persian Gulf rather than the entire Middle East.

Yeah but the fascist urge to start multi-front wars you cannot win is insurmountable.

It’ll never be confirmed. The UAE will never admit to doing so, and the Iranians have no reason to do so either. That said, the fact that Iran has been avoiding hitting the UAE with any drones or missiles whilst other Gulf nations still got pounded over the past few weeks tells me that this is likely true, and the payment has already been done.

He just won’t go. It’s his party, he’s the birthday boy, he can do whatever he wants.

It’s definitely the latter, dude hates the nitty gritty of Being the Guy, he just wants everybody to admire him for Being the Guy. He’s gonna pick UFC fight on his lawn every day of the week.

Yes if every country on earth refused to trade with Israel they would collapse. If global GDP contracts for a few years and oil prices double, Israel’s economy doesn’t collapse “more” than anybody else’s. Like obviously global economic recession is bad for everybody, but it’s a lot worse for like Vietnam or Nigeria than Israel, because Israel’s top industries are things like arms manufacturing and cybersecurity, stuff that gets more important when things get hairy.

In Lebanon a Hezbollah pounded after three years of war has halted the entire IDF to a tiny slither of southern Lebanon with low cost FPV drones. Syria is an absolute clusterfuck, no question there, but let’s see what happens if the Israelis attempt to fight the Egyptians or the Turks. They cannot achieve victory in Iran. They will try in another place where they cannot achieve victory, and one those places will share a land border with Israel, and then… who knows?

Israel does not depend on the global economy in any real sense. This is the tension between the Americans and the Israelis I am talking about. Global economic meltdown is a trump card against the global hegemon that very much cares about the global economy. Israel cares about its genocidal project above all else, and their oil and gas supply is not reliant on the Gulf. They are well insulated from global economic swings. Iran holds no trump card against them. There is no magic “end Israel” button that Iran has but is simply not pressing, unless you mean some all out existential war against Israel that then involves Tehran getting nuked. Israel is running up against the limits of its own power. The psychotic expansionist tenedencies that they’ve been cultivating no longer have anywhere to go, and war is only getting more in favor of defenders with low cost drones and missiles.

There is increasing divergence between Israeli and American aims, and there will be a time after Trump. A huge number on both the right and the left want an end to American support of Israel. One day, that will come to pass. The Israelis are living on borrowed time. All of this is because of Iran and its performance in both wars, coupled with the horrific images of genocide out of Gaza. Israel’s image worldwide has never been worse, and there is no going back.

Iran is not in the position to force Israel to withdraw from Gaza, nor can it ever be unless it is willing to march across Iraq and Jordan or Syria and invade Israel proper, which would frankly be absurd. The best they could acomplish is create a serious rift between the interests of the Americans and the Israelis, which is indeed coming to fruition. It is frustrating that Iran will not achieving some grand victory over the Entity, but it is nor realistic nor fair to expect Iran (and only Iran) to somehow end the genocide by themselves. Every bomb dropped on Iran was one not dropped on Gaza. What more can we reasonably expect? It is not a defeat to not achieve 110% all objectives in a defensive war.

Iran was never going to be able to demand all the concessions it wanted in a war it did not start with the Great Satan. That’s why they’re opening negotiating positions. Again, what other realistic outcome are we hoping for here? If the US does not drop sanctions, then there is no agreement, and the war continues, and the strait remains closed. Iran has control of the strait; if the US does not uphold their side of the bargain, it gets closed again. There’s nothing the Americans can do to get around that fact. Iran is not giving up anything in the text of the leaked agreement, there are no concessions to the Americans, just promises and opening the strait. Iran is not negotiating from a position of weakness here; the Americans can try what they will, but if they break the agreement the war resumes. And the war has not been in America’s favor; nothing in the past two months or so of “ceasefire” has changed that fundamental fact, and if the war resumes again the Americans will continue to get rocked.

I mean to my mind this agreement is an absolute win for Iran. If this is truly the text of the agreement, Iran gives up nothing and gets all sanctions dropped? I understand it’s not “Israel collapses tomorrow” type level win, but for a country going up against the Great Satan this is a phenomenal outcome. There’s nothing about Iran’s sovereignty over the strait because that’s now a fact, it’s not up for a treaty to decide. They’ve already proven they have sovereignty over it, they don’t need a treaty to confirm that. Like I’m not sure what other outcome we’re expecting here for Iran, because as it’s written even if all that happens is all sanctions are dropped and Iran gets $24 billion in exchange for them pinky promising not to develop a nuke that they already said they weren’t that’s a total victory for Iran in a war they did not start.

I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Thank you Mr. Hezbollah sir. Love the idea of Trump on the phone with “Hezbollah.”

Per: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116676034049614301