A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Ansarallah military spokesman Yahya Saree delivering a statement/speech.


The ceasefire appears to be at least temporarily over, with an exchange of fire between (what appears to be) predominantly Iran and the entity, though as always I expect we’ll find increasing evidence of direct US involvement.

The chain of events was as follows, in spoilers below for those who haven’t been keeping up:

chain of events summary
  1. A while ago, Iran warned the occupation entity that if they strike Beirut (with particular emphasis on its southern suburbs, which is an area where Hezbollah officials/structures are concentrated as I understand it) then they will directly strike the north of Occupied Palestine, turning the area into a military zone, and encouraged settlers to leave to avoid civilian casualties.

  2. This warning was grudging accepted by the entity, who ordinarily has a policy called the Daniyeh Doctrine, in which they murder civilians en masse by bombing apartment buildings and houses in enemy cities in order to pressure the military forces they are battling to give into conditions they ordinarily would not be obliged to accept, because the Zionist ground campaigns are usually fairly ineffective at achieving goals on medium to long timescales. While removing their ability to bomb Beirut didn’t halt the Daniyeh Doctrine entirely (they could and did hit other places), their distinct inability to strike the capital when they ordinarily could do that freely was a big source of discontentment in both the civilian population and the military.

  3. As Hezbollah increasingly attrited the Zionist offensive forces, the attractiveness of bombing Beirut in retaliation increased regardless of the consequences, and of course the Zionists do still want to do anything they can to attack and weaken Iran directly and are much worse at hiding this than even the US. This resentment culminated on June 7th, where the Zionists conducted an airstrike on Beirut on a Hezbollah HQ.

  4. Iran immediately said that this constituted a break in the ceasefire, and Khamenei put Iran back on a full war footing. Within 6 hours of the strike on Beirut, Iranian missiles were flying towards the northern occupied territories, in what they regarded as merely a warning shot. Western media was obviously fairly dismissive of this; 182% interception rates and all that jazz, but we have several videos of missiles hitting targets.

  5. Trump publicly warned the Zionists to not respond, which many sensible people immediately diagnosed as kayfabe, and Iran obviously remained on guard against a counterattack. This came a few hours later from Zionist drones and stand-off strikes from aircraft likely in Iraqi airspace, just like in the initial phase of the war months ago. These hit sites in western and central Iran, including a petrochemical facility, but also with some interceptions.

  6. Iran then responded to this counterattack with a yet bigger warning shot into the occupied territories. Ansarallah also joined in with strikes on the Zionists, and they additionally announced that the Red Sea is now closed to all vessels linked directly to the entity. Certain accounts have said that the Bab el Mandab is now actually under full blockade, but this is not clearly substantiated as of me writing this at about 2pm BST, June 8th. There’s been a lot of “considering closing” and “threatening to close” and “moving to close” the Red Sea over the ceasefire period that hasn’t materialized, so I don’t want to get out over my skis.

Worth noting that according to Yves over at Naked Capitalism (a fairly reliable and left-leaning, but not communist, website), we’re now about a month or so away from reaching “tank bottom”. This is largely because commercial demand destruction has not sufficiently occurred due to oil price market manipulations keeping it low, and also because there have been basically no government policies in the US like widespread work-from-home orders. So, soon the shortages will be of the literal oil molecules not being available and not just the price signal. So there’s an increasing anxiety in the US to get this conflict over before the economy really starts to crash in the latter half of the year, one way or another. As a deal seems only increasingly unlikely given US stubborness and inability to accept battlefield realities, a return to military strikes as we’ve seen appears the only way forward, despite almost catastrophic munitions shortages.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    49
    ·
    1 day ago

    15h ago: Veteran political insider in Tehran with knowledge of Iran-US negotiations alleges that a draft agreement has finally been prepared. Speaking with @amwajmedia late on June 10, the insider said, “The text is ready. It was finalized tonight,” explicitly giving credit to Qatar, which has been separately engaging with both Iran and the US to forge a deal. “If they can get the final approval by tomorrow, it will be initiated,” he added, seemingly referring to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), which gathers Iran’s civilian and military leadership, and the White House.

    further orb pondering from tweet, no details on agreement

    Spike in Iran-US violence comes amid mixed signaling that suggests possible disconnect between what the respective militaries are doing, and what political leaderships are discussing.

    Senior Iranian political source interpreted Trump’s decision to conduct strikes for a second night as reflecting anger with an apparent deadlock in negotiations. While describing Trump as “angry,” the senior source lamented that there appeared to be little cognizance in the White House of how real-world armed confrontations “are not a videogame.”

    While the Iranian leadership has authorized retaliatory strikes on US military facilities in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait—casting doubt on the prospect of a nod to an imminent deal—there are indications that both sides ultimately want to avoid renewed all-out war.

    https://nitter.net/mashabani/status/2064909660885291488 dunno the veracity, but tparsi retweeted it, and iran is still kayfabing around coupled with trump tweets might be true ✔

    Fars: The President of the United States claimed a few hours ago in a message on the social network Truth Social that Iran has agreed at the highest level to a text for the initial memorandum of understanding. A few minutes later, he made similar remarks addressing the American newspaper New York Post, saying that the text has been finalized.

    https://nitter.net/bonzerbarry/status/2065142638181773634 now i’m more convinced tbh

    • Lovely_sombrero [he/him]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      31
      ·
      1 day ago

      My guess is this is another stock market pump, a great day for insiders everywhere. SpaceX IPO is tomorrow, Trump and Elon probably want maximum enthusiasm.

    • InexplicableLunchFiend [he/him]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      22
      ·
      24 hours ago

      which gathers Iran’s civilian and military leadership

      remotely i hope. please iran stop putting all your leadership in a single location to “negotiate” with the negotiator killers

      • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        16
        ·
        24 hours ago

        no? exchange was in the night in iran so round 18-19h ago? i dunno, the response from iran seems tepid at best (boohoo we launched some drones at some base, sorry to our people without water or whatever), and iran likes to deny any negotiations despite them obviously happening

    • immuredanchorite [he/him, any]@hexbear.net
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      15
      ·
      24 hours ago

      What is even going on? it seemed like the war was starting again- but now its not? also I am not seeing any news about the “israeli” invasion of lebanon other than the prime minister “banning” fiber optic cable… did everyone forget that lebanon was driving this conflict up the ladder only a few days ago

      • InexplicableLunchFiend [he/him]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        19
        ·
        edit-2
        23 hours ago

        the war can’t really ‘start’ because 1 side is defeated (their strategic objectives are impossible) but unwilling to admit it and leave/abide by a ceasefire (US/Israel) and the other side lacks of the capability of projecting their power enough to force the other to leave or abide by the ceasefire (Iran)

        So we’re locked in eternal stalemate of on-and-off strikes, poking each other, breaking ceasefires, starting ceasefires, negotiations, end of negotiations, etc. It becomes a contest of will and endurance, and unfortunately the US is never, ever going to give up on its imperialist ambitions and protection of the entity. Iran will probably just make a deal at some point when their reformist factions get a moment in the sun because how else does this end? America will drag this out eternally until we’re in a global depression and famines before they abandon Israel. Is all of Iran willing to go to those ends? Iran does have the upper hand in the long run with their economic levers, but will they actually fully push it to that brink? Or will the “reasonable adults” balk at the game of chicken?

        You have to remember the axis of resistance is in this basically alone. China and Pakistan are pressuring Iran to make a deal and chicken out, to abandon Lebanon/Palestine. All of Iran’s “allies” outside the resistance just want things to go back to “normal”. They aren’t supporting Iran, they’re constantly pressuring them to surrender.

        • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          12
          ·
          23 hours ago

          if i were (based) iran, i would wriggle 50-100 billion loan or swap from china tbh, the world economy going down will hurt them just as much as usa, while loan has some inbuilt guarantees for iran (namely them getting bombed again will end in the loan going poof on china)

            • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              7
              ·
              23 hours ago

              i mean hasn’t exactly helped venezuela, but it’s something to do and have instead of vague cooperation agreements or sanctions ignoring (buying discounted oil like a boss)

      • CarmineCatboy2 [he/him]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        16
        ·
        23 hours ago

        I’m not saying that a deal is finalized or whatever, but the end of the war doesn’t have to happen with either a boom or a whimper. Uncertainty can always mean parting shots from both sides.

        The wild card is the israeli faction the USIS axis and if everyone else is willing to tell them enough is enough (for now). Nothing else matters because they can and will always throw spanners in the works.

      • plinky [he/him]@hexbear.net
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        14
        ·
        23 hours ago

        somewhat interestingly https://nitter.net/roqchams/status/2065025522564776069:

        Israel has carried out at least 16 attacks since dawn that targeted vital civilian infrastructure and healthcare institutions in south Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.

        The morning began with heavy artillery shelling that explicitly targeted the immediate perimeters of the Nabatieh Government Hospital and the Nabih Berri University Government Hospital, in south Lebanon. The attacks in the south then expanded into the Bekaa, where a drone strike targeted the plains between Hizzine and Taraya, followed by a series of heavy airstrikes on the Barghaz Valley.

        In Western Bekaa, Mashghara was hit repeatedly by Israeli drone strikes, accounting for six of today’s attacks alone. Meanwhile, consecutive airstrikes targeted residential areas in Toura, Shoukin, Deir Qanoun al-Nahr, and Abbassiyeh. On the ground, the Lebanese Army successfully intervened to dismantle an unexploded Israeli munition dropped directly inside a critical water treatment station in Ibl al-Saqi. This operation led to them discovering an Israeli surveillance drone monitoring the Halta area of Hasbaya.

        This wave of Israeli aggression builds on yesterday’s attacks, which reached the hundreds, including 15 massive airstrikes and a massacre that killed nine people in Tayr Debba.

        i might be mistaken, but this seems slower than usual, although roqayah hasn’t updated the numbers since morning