This week’s summary of the situation is in spoiler tags below:
preamble
Diplomacy between Iran and the US has begun in… perhaps not earnest, but it’s certainly started. Iran’s very reasonable requirement that the Zionist occupation stop ethnically cleansing Lebanon and withdraw has caused a great deal of consternation throughout their population, and several analysts have suggested that Netanyahu being forced to accept Trump’s (and therefore Iran’s) demands spells the end of his leadership in the coming elections; then, the occupation is expected to “mellow out” and the conflicts and genocides slow and stop. This view is only really impactful if you believe that, rather than the US and Zionists being in a strongly mutually beneficial relationship based on geopolitical, financial, and clandestine goals, that instead Netanyahu is a devious mastermind bending any and all in the US to his whims. I don’t believe this; and, if anything, the events of at least the last three years prove that he’s really quite stupid, with “Israel” being in its worst position in decades under his rule.
Nonetheless, Iran has made the issue of Lebanon a not-quite-red-line (an orange line?). It hasn’t stopped them from going to Switzerland and beginning negotiations, but they still want to strongly express their discontent by harnessing the newfound superweapon that is Hormuz. Similarly, threats by Trump and others to restart the war if Iran doesn’t bend to their whims have been met with formal stoppages of negotiations, but it appears technical teams are still talking to each other and working things out. Trump’s threats are fairly idle at this point because most in the US military must know that there’s essentially zero effective military actions left to them with their current munition stockpiles.
Trump let slip that the US has about 3-4 weeks of oil reserves left, which aligns moderately well with the projections of analysts like Yves at Naked Capitalism (it’s now expected in late July rather than early July as was originally forecasted months ago). This means that even if the negotiation process goes off without a hitch, that there’s going to be a period of at least a few weeks where the US is out of reserves but is waiting for new shipments of oil to physically traverse the distance between Hormuz and the US continent. And many analysts have pointed out that it’s going to be a long time - at least a few months, and perhaps more like 9 to 12 - before Hormuz flows pick up to pre-war levels, due to logistics companies and insurance companies wanting to be sure that their property isn’t going to be blown up mid-transit. Regardless, the fact that the timetable is now so tight could indicate that the Trump admin has finally realized that it cannot outbluff and outwait Iran, and will give them a good deal out of necessity, even if this means forcing their unsinkable aircraft carrier to stop bombing children for five consecutive minutes.
However, there is a palpable anxiety throughout Iran right now, especially due to controversy over the degree to which Khamenei actually agreed with the current course of events. This does seem to be confirmed by his wording (to paraphrase): “In principle, I took a different view, but allowed the President to proceed.” Many inside Iran now have more fear that their politicians will not push hard enough for a good deal than that they’ll return to war, with all that may imply. This isn’t an unfounded fear, especially given how suddenly the 12 Day War ended despite Iran’s strengths being medium-and-long-term attrition (now confirmed by this latest war). This is one of those events that reveals how the Supreme Leader in fact doesn’t have complete dictatorial power unlike how he’s conceived of in much of the West, and that even during existential wars, major concessions have to be made to democratically elected leaders. Though, this could also be a clever move to shift blame explicitly onto the Reformist elements if the deal collapses.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Maybe now he will openly oppose the Zionist that runs his police department?
Also, this is only because the Knicks won. It’s better than the alternative, but really seriously, the only reason this is happening is because the Knicks won.
Lander is a Zionist
Unless you can think of a convincing mechanism of power and leverage that would prevent the NYPD from going on an extended police strike and turning the city upside down in a campaign of targeted harassment with the help of the Feds? Then no, it’s not likely Zohran will ever acquire enough power and grassroots infrastructure to openly challenge them, he’s the mayor of a city with strict legal limits to his power, I doubt even the governor of the state could openly challenge the NYPD, that “police” department is an embedded agency in the US national security infrastructure (with international reach); they have DC behind them
Zohran is useful to the extent he normalizes the concept of socialism to average people who are checked out of politics; he will NEVER be Lenin
He is not normalizing socialism. He is normalizing liberal social democracy. If you find that a good strategy, defend that (i think it might have its positive impacts long term, personally). Don’t dilute socialism by using NYDSA 2026 as your normalization. How do we learned from his politics to clarify current proletariat interests in the US (by both failures and successes)? Thats his utility, in my eyes. Misleading people by saying ‘I’m a communist, similar to the socialist mamdani’ will kill us in the long run. ‘Wer hat uns verraten’ etc
He’s normalising socialism because average Americans perceive what he’s doing as socialism; that alone is a tremendous utility because actual socialists can run under that banner can take advantage of the precedence without sacrificing interest and attention by theorizing on live TV
Who gives a fuck if people are “misled”? Do you think the Bolshevik slogan “Peace, Land, and Bread” represented the totality of Marxist-Leninist praxis? No, the motto “Workers of the world, unite!” was more accurate, yet it was at first consigned to Leninist international media, and “Peace, Land, and Bread” took precedence in the Czarist Empire itself because that’s what motivated the people
There is no coherent argument where the advancement of the Mamdani phenomenon isn’t a boon for socialism; he provides us room to maneuver, to organize, to develop infrastructure that can be won by real socialists, he himself will be forgotten in ten years, but the doors he opened will remain; it’s our job to walk through them
Kill the Owenist utopian in your mind and give birth to something more calculating and premeditated
Ok to start, I hate talking to you in this mood you get when defending DSA. It’s an annoying performance art you do that rightfully pisses people off here. You dont treat others as comrades or in any way try to really confront what they say. I tried to mention several times in my comment that there are ways he’s likely useful, but that your specific claim was harmful for our future and unstrategic. Instead you went off on something as if for spectators. Calling me an Owenist sounds like you’re inventing ways to sound smarter to be convincing. Nothing I said has any relation to Owen except in that Marx studied him too. Stop doing that shit and reply like a human or a scholar or something else or I’m just gonna stop replying immediately.
We disagree heavily on whether tailing a social democrat is a sound strategy. Historically (I’m talking every time over 100 years, I’m not going to listen to you saying 2026 is different than every example) that strategy hasn’t been successful. Recognizing the real needs that can be distilled from a Mamdani success is useful–trying to be in movement tailing that electoral success is not.
I’m not talking about ‘misleading’ in moral terms, I mean that it will lead people into complete misunderstanding and lead back to (among others) the ‘left fails to get the goods’ critiques of communists when others are working hard to have a movement that will actually avoid those failures thay inevitably come to social democrats. Peace Land and Bread was useful because it meant something concrete and would actually achieve that. Saying “mamadani is a socialist” has no concrete realization which will have any impact and is nothing like that.
I give back the energy I’m given. In this thread alone your compatriots have labeled me a “Nazi” and “liberal Zionist.” so yeah that tends to put me in a “mood”
Also I deployed the Owenist label because I actually bother to read theory, and you folks are mostly Americans and share the same type of prefigurative politics and state indifference as the historical Owenist movement in America. You guys have given up on acquiring state power in the United States and are waiting for collapse, so yes, you share similarities with the Owenists, I actually noticed the similarity almost two years ago, but I’ve only brought it up once or twice
You can’t tail a mayor, he’s not the party secretary, he’s not president, and he’s not the greatest theoretician since Lenin. HE’S A MAYOR; he tails us because he hopes to remain mayor; you simply refuse to see the power we have to shape and push these people into better and more useful forms of politics
Free child care, free transportation, state grocery stores—you genuinely believe none of these things can be built upon by future socialists elected on the tide of electoral victories?
This is 100% it right here.
I suppose he could theoretically move the needle forward as a demonstration of the limits of an elected official.
For that, he has to fail and be recognized as failing, and to be failing for the reasons that raise the correct consciousness. Sometimes that can just happen, it even happens with cynical liberals trying to do everything in the interest of capital. But it can also be papered over by opportunism and liberalism - much better if there’s a proper pointing of fingers.
As we can already see, keeping a Zionist cop that sends pigs to beat antizionist protesters didn’t move the needle, it just reminded committed organizers that they have to add Mamdani to their list of direct material enemies. It would have to be something like the city-run grocery stores having some meta fight about land values or prices or something and then the socdem savior can arrive, “try” really hard as an individual with a smattering of DSA members holding picket signs, and then fail. Maybe he’d point the right fingers then, maybe not.
We can see the same socdem pattern with Bernie. Initial movement happened because he promised material socdem benefits in light of heightening economic contradictions, particularly disfavoring younger people. Later movement happened because he ate shit and people increasingly recognized that he (at least) kind of sucks. Those who are still big Bernie fans are effectively disengaged.
He’s not going to meaningfully oppose the NYPD because he presumably wants to continue living and doesn’t have a paramilitary to exact a human cost on the NYPD should anything happen to his loved ones or himself.
I’m just asking for verbal opposition. Literally just what he promised.
ahahahaha
nonmaterialism? on my hexbear?
(when the “american Rosa” holds wemby to 33pct shooting, i’ll march with her on the winter palace. but until then please enjoy a win, for once.)
Vulgar materialism? On my hexbear?
Sports teams winning major contests is not a non-materialist factor. The dopamine rushes created by sports as interpreted as a socio/religious phenomena has shown to have real material affects on the outlook, output and general ideology of a city. The Knicks winning has absolutely been a factor for galvanizing people with the idea that “anything is possible”, it is all over social media rn.
The fact that you think an election victory is a ‘win’ speaks to your level of historical political literacy involving ‘progressives’ and ‘democratic socialists’.
We will see what ends up coming out of it. I hope it is good! However, I doubt it will be anything but more hype, if Mamdani’s current trajectory is anything to go by.
Edit: And I am saying this as someone who doesn’t hate the DSA, I just have very little understanding of their overall motivations in the NY chapter when so many of their other chapters are much more radical in their beliefs and doctrine.
if you describe any and all phenomena in a register of material cause and effect, then you’ve trivially declared yourself a materialist. (was Marx’s issue with anarchists or utopian-socialists that they didn’t speak enough about dopamine rushes or serotonin levels?) there are accidents of history and there are deeper structural forces, and one would never certainly isolate a proximate cause. i don’t know the value of trying to do so, other than to be dismissive of a “non-win” – though it should be said that two Z-endorsees won by 20 points, so i find the, knicks-win-necessary thesis, lacking. (could a socialist muslim be elected to the mayoralty of the financial capital of Empire without the Knicks winning? am i supposed to believe any of these candidates winning more surprising?)
maybe the historically literate could educate those who would stand to benefit from emancipatory policies, and by the creation of durable institutions by which to effectuate such policies, and explain to them why efforts made to treat them with basic decency, to limit the predation thrust upon them, is a non-win, actually.
Assigning proximal causes of the thing you’re talking about (an election result) is the only reason to claim socdem wins are in any way attributable to the “left”. Was it The Knicks? Or was it liberals calling themselves socialists going out and canvassing for Zionists? Without proper self-criticism, electoralism will have you claiming the latter and thinking it’s actually more meaningful and insightful than the former.
I’m mostly seeing that that the excitement around Zohran had died down by this point, and that with the Knicks winning, it has been out in force throughout multiple aspects of NY society in a way that simply wasn’t the case prior.
And anarchists were not vulgar materialists, nor were the utopian socialists and that was not Marx’s problem with them.
I agree, if they are able to build durable institutions then this is unequivocally a win, but I have seen progressive politicians come and go without building anything durable. Perhaps this is different in that they have the level of larger support and material access that they need. I hope they are different.
You’re not gonna get thru to this clique, Benrie Sanders eating shit in 2020 bricked their minds, they’ve been on an extended six-year crash-out concerning the very concept of elections and now base their entire politics around the historical contingencies and conditionalities of 1917 and wince and whine at the mere notion the left could have a future in the west
They’re content to self-marginalize and daydream of peasant insurrections in the heart of modern empire, drawing up the most elaborate and incoherent pseudo-theories of why doing nothing in the west and waiting for China is actually cool and revolutionary
You want proof? Watch them take this bait hook, line and sinker
Pump the brakes on the vagueposting attacks on the community at large. From the sidebar:
We should probably consider giving electoralist users a place on this site to actually post about their W’s without being constantly attacked. As it stands any post about electoralist politics just turns into a shit slinging fest.
It’s exhausting to read through and just seems really disrespectful for comrades that have actually put the time to go and organize and try to improve material conditions and reach the masses.
The one true leftist critique used here seems more applicable to the anti electoralist users. The electoralist users can’t even have a little news thread about their victories without getting dunked on.
/c/electoralism ?
From my experience on seeing c/electoralism posts most of them have been anti electoralist posts or the comments are just anti electoralist.
That would be the best place to do that but it seems difficult to moderate effectively. Also C/slop always is there for people that want to ruthlessly dunk on candidates
Alternatively people can just stop attacking each other, which would be my preferred outcome
Ah yes, Bernie Sanders is what ‘bricked my brain on electoralism’ and not seeing progressives and democratic socialists repeatedly eat shit by repeatedly backing down from overwhelmingly popular opinions to appease an electorate of powerful and wealthy centrists, and then pivoting their careers towards being seen and heard but materially, actively, opposing any kind of outside of the ballot box leftist organization.
As is typical of you, Cyborg, you are repeatedly exaggerating what me and ‘my clique’ (hilarious that having people agree with my analysis is a clique) are saying. I’m not even saying that ‘this is bad’ I am saying that ‘We will see if this turns out well, but historically speaking these movements have a tendency to have a lot of smoke and little fire, not actually building anything that lasts in this country.’
They are certainly doing more for any left-wing movement then I am, which I will happily admit.
I am not basing any of my analysis on Lenin or any of the previous Russian revolutionary failures that occured before the absolutely remote outside chance of revolutionary success actually succeeded, and then brought along 30 years of bloodshed. If anything, I am basing my analysis more on the successes and failures of the Milwaukee ‘Sewer Socialists’, as it is far more regionally and contemporarily relevant.
@[email protected] Where was I quote mining Lenin? Literally, point it out. Cite me.
I don’t know you, my comment (that I stand by) is general comment about a lot of online leftists, not specifically directed at you or anyone else.
Yes 2020-2022 sucked, but maybe you should join us in 2026 where the opposite is happening
Yes 1960 sucked, but maybe you should join us in 2026 where the opposite is happening
I mean if that’s how you feel, then I have no beef with you. But don’t pretend there isn’t a cadre of dogpiling ultra-doomers on this site who believe any participation in electoralism is tantamount to embracing American imperialism and Zionism
They hated Jesus because he told the truth.
Also quote-mining Lenin, who was also speaking to conditions in a time and place that could not be more foreign to the present-day United States.