A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like “in Minecraft”) and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is (presumably; there’s no caption) of Zionist strikes on southern Lebanon, where they are attempting to replicate their strategy from Gaza.

This week’s summary of the situation is in spoiler tags below:

preamble

Diplomacy between Iran and the US has begun in… perhaps not earnest, but it’s certainly started. Iran’s very reasonable requirement that the Zionist occupation stop ethnically cleansing Lebanon and withdraw has caused a great deal of consternation throughout their population, and several analysts have suggested that Netanyahu being forced to accept Trump’s (and therefore Iran’s) demands spells the end of his leadership in the coming elections; then, the occupation is expected to “mellow out” and the conflicts and genocides slow and stop. This view is only really impactful if you believe that, rather than the US and Zionists being in a strongly mutually beneficial relationship based on geopolitical, financial, and clandestine goals, that instead Netanyahu is a devious mastermind bending any and all in the US to his whims. I don’t believe this; and, if anything, the events of at least the last three years prove that he’s really quite stupid, with “Israel” being in its worst position in decades under his rule.

Nonetheless, Iran has made the issue of Lebanon a not-quite-red-line (an orange line?). It hasn’t stopped them from going to Switzerland and beginning negotiations, but they still want to strongly express their discontent by harnessing the newfound superweapon that is Hormuz. Similarly, threats by Trump and others to restart the war if Iran doesn’t bend to their whims have been met with formal stoppages of negotiations, but it appears technical teams are still talking to each other and working things out. Trump’s threats are fairly idle at this point because most in the US military must know that there’s essentially zero effective military actions left to them with their current munition stockpiles.

Trump let slip that the US has about 3-4 weeks of oil reserves left, which aligns moderately well with the projections of analysts like Yves at Naked Capitalism (it’s now expected in late July rather than early July as was originally forecasted months ago). This means that even if the negotiation process goes off without a hitch, that there’s going to be a period of at least a few weeks where the US is out of reserves but is waiting for new shipments of oil to physically traverse the distance between Hormuz and the US continent. And many analysts have pointed out that it’s going to be a long time - at least a few months, and perhaps more like 9 to 12 - before Hormuz flows pick up to pre-war levels, due to logistics companies and insurance companies wanting to be sure that their property isn’t going to be blown up mid-transit. Regardless, the fact that the timetable is now so tight could indicate that the Trump admin has finally realized that it cannot outbluff and outwait Iran, and will give them a good deal out of necessity, even if this means forcing their unsinkable aircraft carrier to stop bombing children for five consecutive minutes.

However, there is a palpable anxiety throughout Iran right now, especially due to controversy over the degree to which Khamenei actually agreed with the current course of events. This does seem to be confirmed by his wording (to paraphrase): “In principle, I took a different view, but allowed the President to proceed.” Many inside Iran now have more fear that their politicians will not push hard enough for a good deal than that they’ll return to war, with all that may imply. This isn’t an unfounded fear, especially given how suddenly the 12 Day War ended despite Iran’s strengths being medium-and-long-term attrition (now confirmed by this latest war). This is one of those events that reveals how the Supreme Leader in fact doesn’t have complete dictatorial power unlike how he’s conceived of in much of the West, and that even during existential wars, major concessions have to be made to democratically elected leaders. Though, this could also be a clever move to shift blame explicitly onto the Reformist elements if the deal collapses.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • InevitableSwing [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
    68·
    1 day ago

    CNN - Exclusive: Downed US pilot reported seeing Iranian drones swarm in ‘jellyfish’ formation

    Snippets. Note: I moved sentences around.

    If the airman really saw what he described — a formation moving in unison — it would be an alarming advance in Iranian drone capabilities. “Multiple drones interconnected and moving as one with smaller drones below the bigger drones like legs,” one of the sources familiar with the pilot’s witness account told CNN. “Real alien sh*t.”

    The technical term for the capability described by the pilot is “one-to-many meshed networking,” according to the sources. In general, meshed networking allows an operator to command several drones at a time. US intelligence officials disagreed on how to interpret what the F-15 pilot described, and whether the pilot could recount the incident clearly. For one thing, he was concussed in the crash. It was his second time being shot out of the sky during the Iran war

    He had also been among the pilots downed in a friendly fire incident by Kuwaiti forces early in the conflict, according to two of the sources. Had he witnessed a mature capability that US intelligence wasn’t aware of? A beta test? A mirage in the desert? The intelligence officials conducting the debrief said something to the effect of: “Are you sure you saw what you are saying you saw?” another one of the sources said.

    -–

    Full text

    A US fighter jet pilot rescued by special forces after being shot down over Iran in April described a shocking sight before ejecting from his aircraft: multiple Iranian drones hovering in the air, moving as one, in a formation that resembled a jellyfish, according to four sources familiar with the matter.

    The account, which has not been previously reported, was shared by the F-15 pilot with intelligence officials during a debriefing after the incident. It immediately set off a firestorm of debate within the US intelligence community that has yet to be resolved.

    If the airman really saw what he described — a formation moving in unison — it would be an alarming advance in Iranian drone capabilities.

    “Multiple drones interconnected and moving as one with smaller drones below the bigger drones like legs,” one of the sources familiar with the pilot’s witness account told CNN. “Real alien sh*t.”

    Another source told CNN the pilot described witnessing a “minefield of drones” in the air.

    While the exact cause of the F-15 downing is still being investigated, initial reports indicated that it was possible the drone formation had in some way enabled Iran to shoot down the American jet, according to two of the sources.

    The F-15 carried a crew of two — a pilot and a weapons system officer. US forces immediately launched search and rescue efforts, CNN previously reported.

    The downing of the F-15 fighter jet marked the first time a US aircraft has been shot down over Iran during the conflict.

    The pilot was rescued hours after ejecting from the aircraft, while the weapons systems officer evaded Iranian capture in the mountains for more than a day before also being rescued. It is not clear if the weapons systems officer also saw the drone formation.

    A second aircraft, an A-10, was downed during the rescue effort but that pilot managed to eject safely outside of Iranian airspace.

    US intelligence officials disagreed on how to interpret what the F-15 pilot described, and whether the pilot could recount the incident clearly.

    For one thing, he was concussed in the crash. It was his second time being shot out of the sky during the Iran war: he had also been among the pilots downed in a friendly fire incident by Kuwaiti forces early in the conflict, according to two of the sources.

    Had he witnessed a mature capability that US intelligence wasn’t aware of? A beta test? A mirage in the desert?

    The intelligence officials conducting the debrief said something to the effect of: “Are you sure you saw what you are saying you saw?” another one of the sources said.

    The US Air Force directed queries to US Central Command, which did not directly address questions from CNN. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not reply to a request for comment.

    The questions about Iran’s drone program come as the US and Tehran negotiate a deal that would end the Iran war, having begun a 60-day window for talks as part of a ceasefire last week. Those talks are expected to focus on Iran’s nuclear program, though a wide range of issues have been raised by both parties.

    While the specific drone capability described by the pilot was not something that US intelligence agencies had previously assessed Iran possessed, there is a trail of reports indicating that Iran had been receiving assistance in developing its drone technology from China and Russia, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

    The technical term for the capability described by the pilot is “one-to-many meshed networking,” according to the sources.

    In general, meshed networking allows an operator to command several drones at a time.

    Other countries — Russia and China — are believed to have the capability. Any development in Iran’s already-sophisticated drone warfare program would be a concern for US forces and its allies in the region.

    Meshed networking could also theoretically be used to provide internet connectivity in remote areas without existing infrastructure, noted one US official — in theory, a benign function.

    Iran aggressively employed its attack drones as an asymmetric weapon during the weeks-long conflict against US and Israeli forces as well as nearby Gulf countries.

    “We will spend huge, huge dollars, like a lot of blood and treasure, protecting ourselves from something that can coordinate like that,” Emma Bates, a drone warfare and defense modernization expert who founded the company Cachai, told CNN, referring to the threat posed by meshed networking capabilities for drones.

    “If it can coordinate itself into a recognizable shape and maintain that shape, and if it’s got explosives on board, and if it is holding resources in reserve to attack whatever the first volley didn’t destroy – that’s a very capable approach,” Bates said.

    https://archive.ph/mleAw